Exit Polls

• Context (IE): The Lok Sabha Elections 2024 will end on June 1^st, after which exit polls will be released.

What are Exit Polls?

• Exit polls are surveys conducted with voters as they leave a polling station during an election.
• The purpose is to gather information on how people voted and their demographic characteristics.
• These polls provide early indications of election results before official results are announced.
• The Indian Institute of Public Opinion was the first one to conduct an exit poll during the second Lok Sabha elections in 1957.

Limitations of Exit Poll

• These surveys can be influenced by the choice, wording and timing of the questions.
• Prone to error: It relies on a random sample, may not be the true representative of the electorate.
• Non–response bias: Not all selected voters in the sample genuinely participate and respond.
• Volatility of Voter behaviour: Last-minute voter sentiment changes can affect predicted election results.
• Absentee Voters: It does not cover absentee voters, who may vote through postal ballots.

Exit Poll vs. the Opinion Poll Exit polls are conducted immediately after voters have cast their votes. Opinion polls are conducted before the elections take place to estimate the inclination of the voters.

Exit Poll Regulation in India

Need of Regulation

• Exit polls, if released prematurely, can potentially influence voting behaviour.
• Accurate and reliable information: It must be regulated to preserve electoral integrity and prevent the dissemination of false and misleading predictions about voting trends.
• By regulation, stability and confidence in the electoral process are promoted.

RPA, 1951

• Section 126: It prohibits conducting exit polls and disseminating results via print or electronic media from the start of the first phase until half an hour after the last phase ends.
• Under Article 324, ECI prohibits the media agencies from publishing or releasing the results of exit polls.
• The ECI usually imposes a “prohibition period” on publishing or disseminating exit poll results.
• Punishment: Violators of the directive could face a two-year prison term, a fine, or both.
• ECI also mandates that media agencies conducting exit polls register with the ECI.

Status of Exit Poll In Other Countries

• USA: There are no laws in the US to regulate the practice of exit polls. However, the results are not published until the voting is completed.
• Germany: Exit polls are strictly regulated in Germany. It is considered a crime to release the results of an exit poll before the completion of voting in all polling stations.
• UK: The publication of exit poll results is not regulated by law, but media outlets refrain from publishing results until voting in all polling stations has ended.
• Singapore: In Singapore, a complete ban on exit polls has been imposed.